Linux’ 2009 Market Share Leeches
- Image via CrunchBase
One of the most interesting aspects of this year, as far as Linux is concerned, is the lack of the usual ‘Year of the Linux Desktop’ news items. And yes, the massive success of netbooks introduced Linux to the masses. However, we still have huge problems which will continue to hinder adoption of Linux on our current hardware. In this article I’ll focus on the most critical ones. I’d also like to hear what you think is going to be Linux’ biggest problem / competitor this year
As always there is no way that everybody’s going to agree with me so if you have your own opinion about it please tell us in the comments instead of just writing about how I suck, or otherwise provoking pointless arguments.
Windows 7
Windows 7 is coming out this year, that means Microsoft finally realized Windows Vista wasn’t an OS that could actually compete with Linux.
We’ve seen the new refurbished interface, which frankly looks a lot like KDE, we’ve seen the user experience improvements which were mostly simplified system administration…
So why is Windows a threat to Linux in 2009?
You see, this year is not really the year of the Linux desktop – it is the year of the Linux Netbook; and the problem is: Microsoft (supposedly) managed to lower system-resource consumption, thus enabling people to run Windows 7 with more features on the very popular netbooks through which Linux is actually gaining market share this year;
but still even though Windows 7 is an improved Windows Vista it is still Windows in the core, and we have to make new users aware of this fact and try to convert them to Linux, if of course Linux can manage all their computing tasks.
Bad Netbook Linux Distributions
When the eeePC came out people rushed to the stores and bought millions of the tiny laptops. The first eeePC came with the Xandros Linux operating system. I’ve tested it out personally and I must say it is one of the most horrible distributions I have ever seen. Yes, this may be a very harsh opinion but it is not so far from the truth. Xandros doesn’t really show what Linux can really do. People who have installed other Linux distributions know that many other full-blown Linux distros can run just as well
I hear and to read on many news sites and podcasts that some other notebook providers also ship their own netbook-tailored distributions and quite frankly that’s what makes me scared.
People will start hating Linux because these implementations are mostly pretty bad – sadly not all networks are powerful enough to run Ubuntu Mobile.
Open Solaris was first dubbed “Sun’s project copy Linux”. Still, nobody is laughing.
At the moment it doesn’t have as many packages as most Linux distributions do, but we must not underestimate Ian Murdock, who is the Debian guy.
Yes the Debian guy.
Project Indiana will in my opinion become a very powerful and feature-rich OpenSolaris distribution and because of some OpenSolaris-specific technologies users may want to choose OpenSolaris for their desktop.
Silverlight
It all started in 2007 and continued with the Barack Obama inaguration ceremony. Firstly though, let us thank Miguel de Icaza for the Moonlight plug-in.
You know what will happen, I don’t have to explain it in detail:
Microsoft shall take advantage of its large user base and push Silverlight, so the Linux user will not be able to enjoy the newest Silverlight-encoded media. Bummer, huh?
Touch Interfaces
The touch interface craze probably started with the introduction of the iPhone and I don’t think that it’s stopping any time soon. We have seen a lot of trouble with X.org development and I’m not sure if Linux will be able to support the latest touch technologies. Of course I may be completely wrong and the power of community may enable machines running Linux to provide a full touch experience, but if Microsoft is thinking of forcing people to use touchscreens Linux may fall behind in market share this year for sure.
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What market share? Someone is trying to take away the 0.94% (with all 18,000 distros combined)?
Also, you say Microsoft is trying to compete with Linux? Ok…..
And as far as the touchscreens, Google has managed to do that just fine with (Linux-based) Android. They have enough sense to give people something that works without telling them to “just edit the .conf file” or “RTFM”.
@derChef
Just keep on fantasizing, and don’t let facts faze you. It’s what makes Windows TEs so amusing to read; the attempts to marginalize Linux with words instead of code is hysterical!
I realised that the linux market is skyping all the way
Bless your hearts Linux users…And I am one myself…but this was hilarious…
“Vista wasn’t an OS that could actually compete with Linux”…
I don’t even like Vista but you guys are what we say in Sweden “on a serious bicycle ride”…
Vista is still a niche operating system (on the desktop) and it will remain so until the eliminate the need to ever open the console…
There is a reason people don’t build there own radios anymore…cause it is a pain in the arse!
Linux users don’t use the linux console just because they have to
What makes you think the year of Linux has not arrived?
I notice that you’re showing the windows 7 Logo and you state your a Linux user? then were is the penguin logo tut tut Linux user
here are the numbers downloaded from Sabayon 4 linux website as of today Downloads: 3283,408 thats just one distro, not counting the other distros Fedora, Suse, Ubuntu, Pclinux, just to name a few pop ones
dear me life must be getting tough for MS if it needs A linux user to advertise windows 7 have they offered you a free copy wwhen it is released
You sir are one deranged individual
I think one of the largest problem for Linux is the awareness in the market. People are used to walking into a store and seeing Windows and OS X on the computers, not Linux. The issue here is that Linux is not really a commercial product, so it is having a hard time competing. What we need is more vendors to start using it and deploying it on their systems. Right now it’s a lot of local people that are using it, companies that have their own IT staff, etc. However, Linux has a LOT of advantages, and doesn’t come with all of the political issues of Microsoft nor is it anywhere near the bloated size of Windows. I prefer Linux both for my personal business as well as at home. It has saved me hundreds if not thousands of dollars, and runs so stable that I can focus on using my computers, rather than maintaining them.
http://members.apex-internet.com/sa/windowslinux
Interesting comments…
I would point out that the outright sabotage of the linux movement is only just beginning. As linux grows in influence, the resistance will grow exponentially. Vested interests see linux as a serious threat, not only in terms of lost sales, but also in terms of the pressure it places upon them to drop prices.
Do you imagine, were it not for Linux, that MS would be practically giving away office and windows in certain markets?
And how do you imagine advertisers and record companies regard an OS which they cannot control?
We need to consolidate…
Get behind a single distro, and make it work really really well.
If we do not hang together, we shall surely hang separately.
This is not the beginning of the end…It is the end of the beginning.
…But if we fail, then the whole world … will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister … by the lights of perverted science
Apologies to Winston Churchill.
The new kernel (2.6.30) has support for full multi-touch, and you are saying that linux won’t be able to handle touch screens?
I have heard the cry the year of Linux since the Mid 90′s… and so far it has never happened. And I don’t think MS is trying to Compete with Linux… there is not much to compete with? A fight for less then 1% of the market? And in many cases those people are multi booters?
KDE looks like Windows 7? Err is it not KDE trying to get the windows feel???
Download stat’s mean nothing. Heck I have downloaded one Distro 3-4 times playing around with things. Its still 1 user, still 1 PC. Downloads do not equal installs or customers.
Thats about the same way they count windows users. Although they use PC sales with windows preinstalled, and not downloads.
I bought both my laptop and PC with windows preinstalled, and whiped them only to install Ubuntu. You can imagine that i am not the only one
.
Linux is said to have 1% market share ever since i can remember
. I have been using linux for 5 years now, never looked back. People seem to be stuck in an era that linux first appeared on the desktops 
.
In any case, with every new version Ubuntu (at least) is getting better and better. I never have to open a terminal for ANYTHING (excluding perl coding and others…i just prefer VIM over other editors).
I have been using Ubuntu Linux for about three years or so now. I have never opened the console (terminal, I think you mean).
Also, I don’t have to reboot three times a day any more. I only reboot about once a month… and only to close everything fast… not because I have to.
I love Ubuntu. We never have any issues with drivers installing Ubuntu on friends’ computers. With Windows we have nothing but problems — missing drivers, viruses, malware, bloatware, and crashing and rebooting 3-4 times a day.
Windows Vista is the worst major release software ever developed. And Windows 7 is not much better.
What we need to do….. is FIGURE OUT A WAY TO GET NEW COMPUTERS SHIPPED WITH UBUNTU INSTEAD OF WINDOWS.
If we could do that, Windows would be gone overnight.
I’ve been using Linux and Mac exclusively for several years. Making the switch to Linux was a fairly steep learning curve at first, but OS stability, lower cost of operation and not having to play cat and mouse with viruses and malware made it worth the effort.
If Linux is ever going to be a real competitor to Windows, here’s what needs to happen …
1.) Settle on a distro and build on it. I use Ubuntu, but Open Solaris is promising (I couldn’t get it to do a complete an install on my eeePC though). The mainstream DESKTOP user will want ONE REALLY GOOD OS from ONE trusted source. They have been trained that way. Sun Microsystems or Google could pull it off because they are already trusted MAINSTREAM BRANDS.
2.) Wine or Crossover or something not yet developed, has to work perfectly and without effort so that Windows progams can be used until Linux versions can be develoed. Too many folks have too much time and money invested in Quickbooks, TurboTax and Photoshop, to switch OS. I know many folks who would switch to Mac, even at 2x the hardware price, but having to replace all their software is the deal breaker.
3.) Decide it is okay to make money. Let’s use Sun Microsystems as an example; wouldn’t a REALLY SLICK Solaris distro (really just an enhanced version of Ubuntu) with a feature enhanced OO office suite, enhanced version of GIMP and excellent multimedia support as standard features be worth the SAME as Windows in the eyes of most consumers?
4.) Mainstream users equate FREE, with INFERIOR. If you get what you pay for, what do you get if you pay nothing?
@Bruce Wagner:
“What we need to do….. is FIGURE OUT A WAY TO GET NEW COMPUTERS SHIPPED WITH UBUNTU INSTEAD OF WINDOWS.
If we could do that, Windows would be gone overnight.”
They did that. Dell used to sell computers that came with Ubuntu pre-installed. Nobody bought them, so they stopped.
@Mitch Kehn
You do realise that Oracle bought out Sun, right? They can’t even figure out what they’re doing with MySQL, and Sun is laying off another 3,000 workers while the EU antitrust commission debates whether or not the merger is going through. Yeah, I guess you’re right, Sun Microsystems is a trusted, mainstream brand.
@Woli: First off, Customer is defined as one who purchases something. Linux is free in the sense of free beer, and free spirit. You can’t change windows beyond MS EULA…if so you are technically a criminal…With linux its like playing with play dough. You mold it shape it and do as you will with it…just as long as when you hand it to the next kid he or she has the pleasure of building something better off of what you started or just smashing it and building something completely different…just so long as the guy next to him or her has the privilege to do the same as the 2 before him. Linux Mint 7 and Ubuntu Jaunty will not take the market share but they will have something that windows users dont. Freedom, and happy “customers”.
If Linux takes over windows in the desktop market with it’s current status, I may just quit using PC and find some other hardware.
I’ve used linux since 0.89 Kernel when it was a bunch of floppy disk images on a local BBS that I installed on a 386. It was good for doing server work, especially considering this was days when win 3.11 was my alternative. I loved linux then for what it was, now it’s changed into some fanboy hype, something I’m glad I don’t have to endure every day with windows.
After wrestling with literal kernel syntax errors in Linux and security problems. I’ve since left linux and went to freebsd and glad I have. One single distribution is great. I also won’t see websites with “Why desktops should be freebsd instead of windows” because freebsd users know what their OS is for and don’t force themselves into it just to spite windows that has a completely different agenda. Windows has issues? So what? So does every other OS. Just seems Mac OS users and Linux users see fit to shove themselves down everyone’s throats, at least linux users on PC. My router which is linux based firmware isn’t trying to sell itself as my desktop computer either.
If you enjoy linux, enjoy it, but don’t try to shove it down everyone’s throats.
Well 2009 is over! Linux desktop had it’s best chance yet with booming netbook market. Dell tried it and so did Walmart. But people did not want it, people. On the other hand Android seems all set to go places. Go figure!
So when I download fedora open suse knoppix ubuntu 8 and 9 that make me a installed base for each of them?
Linux is not ready for mainstream Ubuntu is close but not quite there yet. Main problem is what people consider its advantage hundreds of modified versions.
Combine this with the need to compile if you cant find a package for your distro it is a deal breaker. There are no GUI compiler tutorials that will guide a new user through.
IF you ha to open console ever to install driver program change setting you have failed. I know that advanced users love the terminal and for administrators with all the possibilities for automation it is great however for a novice it is major hurdle to overcome.
Linux need universal package distribution format. Universal GUI configuration tools like YAST in open suse in all Desktop distros.
If you dont have that there is no hope for it on the desktop.
For what it’s worth:
The developer of “Super OS” (formerly known as “Super Ubuntu”) and I
are working on creating a One Button Install of all multimedia codecs,
players, and other proprietary/protected stuff for media. It asks
the user to “agree” that it’s his legal responsibility, then it adds
each needed repository to software sources, installs what’s needed,
and asks if you’d like it to delete itself from the desktop. It is
literally One Button. And we’re calling it, “The One Button”.
It’s almost done. The alpha works flawlessly on a standard Ubuntu
9.10 install. He’s just finishing the GUI / icon part, which is
super simple. I’ll let you know when it’s available.
Bruce (click my name for my site)