Internetling

First, I’d like to wish a Happy New Year to everyone! 2009 has been a very interesting year (at least as far as tech goes) and I’m sure we will see some amazing stuff this year, that is why I would like to make a few brave predictions. I am very excited about 2010, we have now got some great technology that I cannot wait to get my hands on, such as Android-tablet “appliance” computers, more web multimedia services following the examples of Hulu and Pandora, lightning-fast instant-on operating systems like Jolicloud, color E-Ink screens and of course, robot maids (finally fulfilling my dream of becoming the ultimate lazy student).

2010 will also be the year when Google becomes a major player in the physical world. Think augmented reality, real Google hardware and cloud services. In just a few days the Nexus One will be released and we are just 6 or 7 months away from the first all-Google cellphone. Whatever happens, this will definitely be the year of the Goog.

Google Chrome will match Firefox’s browser market share

Google, who is by the way Firefox’s biggest revenue source, is pushing Chrome to users by all possible means. Now that the snappy browser supports extensions, it would almost not be an exaggeration to say Firefox’s days are numbered. If Firefox does not step up its game (I certainly hope it does, being a Firefox user), especially in the speed department, we might see a very different browser market share chart next year. Except the sheer number of addons, there are now almost no advantages to running Firefox.

Android will overtake the iPhone

Apple might own most of the phone market at the moment, but there are millions of people out there who still have not upgraded. The trick to reach many people is to match their needs perfectly, giving them a reason to switch: Android is not tied to the same company – we have juggernauts like HTC, Motorola and Samsung working on numerous new models, all somehow different. Apple will surely present a new iPhone this January. However, they will never be able to reach every consumer with their small and expensive lineup.

Chrome OS will be a huge flop (initially)

You might think I am contradicting myself due to mentioning “light” operating systems as exciting technologies. But, like most of you guys, I am not an average consumer. I will probably install Chrome OS ot of sheer curiosity, then delete it because I know many other competitive operating systems that offer much more. I am betting on people’s distrust to the cloud. We have Linux distributions that do much more and can even run Chrome, plus in a few months they will boot just as fast. Why use a handicapped OS? The hardware for both reliable local and remote storage and applications is already almost cheap enough. My guess is that Google will be disappointed by the slow adoption and Chrome OS will become more and more similar to standard operating system, driving adoption in the following years through the Google brand name.

Ubuntu 10.04 will not start up in ten seconds

I think there is no way they will make it. Be sure to check out the Internetling around the release date, when I will see if the new version will boot in under half a minute on a minimal spec machine. Because now it takes a lot more to boot on 2 gigs of RAM. I believe Canonical has a very capable developer team, but this is a bit too optimistic, even for Linux.

Overall, more ARM and MIPS-based “smartbooks” will be sold than x86-powered machines UMPCs

I am willing to bet the so-called “smartbook” market is just short of exploding. With chips like the Longsoon and distros like xPUD, there is no way people will be able to resist under-$100 smartbooks. This will be achieved in 2010, it is the next big thing, not tablets. I am aware of the broken promises by vendors in the recent years. Now it will be different, prices have been driven very low, we just need to wait for someone with a vision (no, not Negroponte).

So, let’s talk about 2010 in the comments! What are you excited about, what do you think will happen?

I also want to thank everyone for reading the Internetling in 2009! It has been a very stressful year for me, but I am determined to keep writing. Thanks a million for your support!